The impact of sea surface temperatures over the Coral Sea on the warm core intensification of a Tasman Sea cyclone

Abstract

In early June 2016 a large rainband with an embedded subtropical cyclone brought extensive heavy rainfall along Australia's east coast from southern Queensland to Tasmania. In the lead-up, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Coral and Tasman Seas were the warmest on record for the time of year. This study uses convection-permitting simulations with different SST configurations to assess their influence on cyclone development. Simulations with observed SST – both fixed (Control) and daily evolving (Evolving) – produce a stronger cyclone off the New South Wales (NSW) coast compared with a simulation using 3 June climatological SST (Climatology). The cyclone also stalls longer near the NSW c..